Room 12A: Ukraine Archives

Ukraine Archives

Bono to Canada

January 4, 2007 09:35 AM

Canada police find head of stolen Ukraine statue

By Cameron French Wed Jan 3

TORONTO (Reuters) - The desire to cash in on soaring copper prices is being blamed for the theft of a bronze statue brought to Canada over 50 years ago to commemorate Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko.

Police recovered the head of the 3-meter (10-foot), two-tonne likeness this week at a metal recycling business just west of Toronto.

They are now hunting for the body, which is estimated to be worth somewhere close to C$20,000 ($17,000) in scrap metal, but has a far greater value to the 1 million strong Ukrainian diaspora in Canada. ...

"We do (see a lot of scrap metal theft)," said Halton Region police public affairs officer Peter Payne.

"But this is the first time in (the area) we've ever lost a valuable piece of metal artwork that's been reduced to scrap. It's pretty unfortunate."

Bronze is largely made up of copper alloys. Copper has approximately doubled in price over the past two years. On Wednesday the copper price in London was $5,855 a ton.

Earlier in December, a 250 kilogram (550 pound) copper statue of Greek mythological figure Atlas was stolen from in front of a metal fabricating company in north Toronto. The statue was later recovered and a man was charged.

Link · History | Humor | Ukraine

Ukraine Archives

Ukraine Backfill

December 18, 2006 04:36 AM

Yes, posting has been light here recently. So let's briefly catch up with just a few of the major developments.

Jack Palance died at 87. He was from Ukraine - "Believe it or Not."**

Viktor Yanukovich visited Washington for meetings with senior U.S. officials. He told American audiences "There can never be too much democracy, just as there can never be too much freedom." Then he fell over on his side and began pounding the floor as he convulsed with laughter.

Back home, Ukrainians are still not sure who is in charge of the government. Yanukovich-appointed government ministers barred Ukraine's pro-Western foreign minister, Borys Tarasyuk, from a cabinet meeting, explaining (according to Tarasyuk) that his name wasn't "on the list."

The Rada passed a bill to recognize the 1932-33 famine as a deliberate act of genocide, undertaken by Stalin's regime, in which millions of Ukrainians perished. In a nationally televised broadcast, Viktor Yushchenko said, "Those who deny the man-made famine hate Ukraine deeply and convincingly, hate us, our spirit and our future." This group presumably includes virtually the entire majority coalition in the Rada, since its deputies sat out the vote so as not to offend the Putin government in Russia.

David Duke was awarded a doctorate in History by a prominent university in Kyiv that has traditionally fixated on the "Jewish question." (The State Department says the school gets some of its funding from Middle Eastern governments. Go figure.) It was his second visit.

**TV show he hosted with his wife in the 1980s.

Link · Jews | Russia | Ukraine

Ukraine Archives

Oleksandr the Grater

October 11, 2006 07:26 AM

Readers of this blog will recall that the gradual rupture of the so-called Orange coalition began last year with the resignation of Oleksandr Zinchenko - a Tymoshenko loyalist - as the president's chief of staff. At a press conference, he dramatically charged three of Yushchenko's top lieutenants, including security chief Petro Poroshenko, with unspecified "corruption."

Well, the allegations have fallen away, but Zinchenko has not. This week, he was brought back into the cabinet by Yushchenko as a top advisor. And you might say the move has not exactly delighted officials from the president's party (Our Ukraine), as the following report suggests. (Bear in mind that the translation from Ukrainian is not precise. "Persuades" ought to be "urges," for instance.)

Our Ukraine Persuades Yushchenko to Sack Zinchenko
translated by Irena Yakovina, 10.10.2006, 13:05

Our Ukraine Bloc (NU) pushes the President to sack Olexandr Zinchenko from the post of the President’s advisor.

It followed from NU Presidium statement, which reads:

“The Party Presidium considers that such an irresponsible politician who failed to cope with his task as head of the President’s Secretariat, has no moral right to counsel the President.”

Moreover Zinchenko has spread rumors that plunged Ukraine into crisis, split the ‘orange camp’, wrecked the state’s image and consequently caused outcomes of this year’s parliamentary elections.

Ukraine’s courts as well as the Special Inquiry Commission of the Verkhovna Rada have not found any evidences of Zinchenko’s allegations thus completely disproving them.

On Monday President Yushchenko appointed Olexandr Zinchenko his advisor. At that the President’s freelance advisor Olexandr Tretyakov unwilling to work with Zinchenko submitted his resignation.

Ukrayinska Pravda

Mykola Martynenko, one of the Yushchenko aides accused by Zinchenko, was somewhat more circumspect, telling Pravda, “Viktor Andriyovych (Yushchenko) is a great humanist and gives a chance even to people who made many mistakes."

Then he ate a stick of butter.

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Anna Politkovskaya

October 10, 2006 06:59 AM

There has been much written in the last two days about the despicable murder of Anna Politkovskaya - an act as depraved as it was, alas, predictable in Vladimir Putin's Russia. For its implications, one could do worse than this analysis by the always thoughtful Ron Rosenbaum. You may quarrel with his conclusions - even he does - but you cannot help but share his exasperation. The obituary from Novaya Gazeta, her newspaper, bears reprinting in full:

ANYA
On Saturday, October 7th, Anna Politkovskaya, correspondent of Novaya Gazeta was killed in the stairwell of her home

Novaya Gazeta, Moscow, Russia, Monday, October 9, 2006

She was beautiful, and through the years became only more beautiful. Do you do know why? At first we merely receive our countenance from God, and then the rest we make of it ourselves in the way that we live.

Still, they say that in maturity the soul begins to appear on face. Her soul was beautiful.

She was feminine. She knew how to laugh and joke and cry from injustice. Any injustice, no matter with respect to whom, she took as her personal enemy, and she fought it with all her strength.

She was amazingly courageous, much more courageous than those many macho types in their armored jeeps, surrounded by bodyguards.

They threatened her, they tried to intimidate her, and arranged shadows and searches. She was arrested in Chechnya by "our own" airborne forces, and they threatened to shoot her.

They poisoned her when she flew to Beslan. She clawed her way back to life, and, though afterwards she was never really as healthy as before, her conscience was all the stronger.

Many people, even well-wishers of Novaya Gazeta, now and then said: "Well, your Politkovskaya - she's too much already..." Not too much! She always wrote the truth.

It is another matter that this truth was frequently too terrible, that many people's consciences refused to accept it. And so, as a protective reaction, they said she was "too much already." Sometimes even our editorial staff.

For the average person, probably, the most difficult thing is to turn away from a terrible fact. But, if we were to look evil directly in the eye, it cannot remain; it will pass.

Anya looked evil directly in the eye, and, perhaps, she remained the conqueror in the worst situations. Perhaps she remained alive where her lowered eyes would have meant her death.

For us she is still alive. We will be never accept the death of our Anya. Whoever undertook this brutal murder - in the center of Moscow, in broad daylight, we ourselves will search for the killers. We have a good idea where they can be located...

In Europe, and in America, right now the question is being discussed: what is the state of the independent media in Russia? Novaya Gazeta in recent years has had three of its leading journalists murdered.

Igor Domnikov. His killers - because of the efforts of honest detectives and this newspaper - were brought to court.

Yuri Shchekochihin. Even the authorities in his homeland refused to look at the results of his autopsy... but we are continuing our investigation, and his killers will be punished.

Now they have taken our Anya Politkovskaya... They killed not just a
journalist, not just a human rights advocate, or a citizen, they killed a beautiful woman and mother.

While there is still a Novaya Gazeta, her killers will not sleep quietly.

[Hat Tip: Morgan Williams & Action Ukraine Report]

Link · Journalism | Russia | Ukraine

Ukraine Archives

Court of Resort

August 30, 2006 03:25 AM

I've never spared much thought for the European Court of Human Rights. And who could, with such competition to consider from so many other institutions of preening European forwardness? But if this court can return ownership of a major steel mill to the crooked Ukrainian billionaires who not long ago stole it through plainly illicit insider dealing - well then, in that case it will have shown itself to be a meddlesome agent of corruption to be manipulated by venal European elites. And therefore deserving of very close attention.

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NADIYA OLEKSIVNA SVITLYCHNA (1939 - 2006)

August 13, 2006 11:03 AM

Kudos to Morgan Williams and his indispensible Action Ukraine Report (to sign up, email Morgan at morganw@patriot.net) for calling attention to the death this week of Nadiya Svitlychna, a dissident who made freedom possible for millions by making tyrrany impossible for the Soviet authorities.

In December 1970 in the city of Vasylkovi, Kyiv region, she and Y. SVERSTYUK found the body of their murdered friend, the artist A. HORSKA, organized the funeral and arranged for a monument to be placed on her grave.
After the "January cull" of 1972 (the second wave of arrests), Svitlychna was summoned to the KGB for questioning virtually on a daily basis in connection with the case against her brother. Each time she parted with her two-year old son Yarema as though for good. Her son was also used by the KGB as an "argument" in the investigation.

A month before her actual arrest, during one of the questions, they
announced her arrest and demanded that she sign a form stating whom she authorized to bring up her child.

"There were tears. Fear, doubts, bargaining with my soul: should I agree to compromise for the sake of my child", - these were the thoughts that ran through her head when the head of the investigation unit, the notorious Parkhomenko said: "We are giving you 24 hours - think long and hard". She did not believe a single word.

It then transpired that on that day I. DZIUBA had been arrested, and a large number of searches carried out, including of Svitlychna's home. They removed the books of V. STUS "Fenomen doby" ["A Penomenon of our time"], A. Avtorkhanov "Technology of power", Mykhailo OSADCHY "Bilmo" ["Cataract"], a manuscript by Danylo SHUMUK, poems, articles, extracts, letters - 1800 items in all.

Svitlychna was arrested on 18 May 1972. Her son was taken from the crèche by KGB agents and put in a children's home in the city of Vorzel near Kyiv. It was only through the efforts of Nadiya's sister-in-law, L. SVITLYCHNA, that the family was able to collect him from there and take him to his grandmother in the Luhansk region.

Svitlychna spent almost a year in the isolation cell of the KGB on
Volodymyrska St. She was accused of having held and distributed samizdat.

Her response to the provocative questions of the investigator was as
follows: "I am simply a person whom life gave the good fortune of meeting with a wide range of creative people. Persecution against them I perceive as persecution against me".

The investigation protocols also read: "I admit guilt in that, having a higher education and a certain amount of life experience, I still believed laws which contradict each other, I considered that the Constitution of the USSR is the highest Law and this is not the case since it is constantly violated. I promise that when I am released with my small child, I will not read anti-Soviet literature.

However I cannot swear that I will not read anything at all, since I am a literate person, while the criteria are not clear, what one can read and what is not allowed".

On 23-24 May 1973 Nadiya Svitlychna was sentenced by the Kyiv Regional Court under Article 62 Part 1 of the Criminal Code of the UkrSSR ("Anti-Soviet agitation and propaganda") to 4 years labour camp.

She served her sentence in the Mordovian political labour camp, No.
ZhKh-385/3 in the settlement of Barashevo, the Tengushevsk district.

Together with other prisoners she actively participated in protests, hunger strikes. A month before the end of her sentence, Svitlychna was taken to Luhansk to choose a place to live, effectively in "exile", although she had firmly decided to return to Kyiv.

She returned in May 1976. She was refused registration, not able to get a job, and threatened with arrest for "parasitism". She and her son lived with her sister-in-law, L. SVITLYCHNA, who was regularly fined for "infringements of passport regulations".

In autumn 1976 she had the courage to send a declaration to the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Ukraine and the government rejecting her citizenship, basing this move on the savage punishment meted out to Levko LUKYANENKO, Petro GRIGORENKO, Viacheslav CHORNOVIL,Vasyl STUS, Stefaniya SHABATURA and other decent people.

She explained her decision with the following words: "It would be below my dignity to remain the citizen of the world's biggest, most powerful and most developed concentration camp". She sent copies of this declaration to the Ukrainian Helsinki Group (UHG) and the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR.

Remember her the next time you hear from American "dissidents" like Tim Robbins.

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Ukraine Archives

We Few, We Unhappy Few

August 9, 2006 07:03 AM

Finally, a British scientist has proven that Ukraine is an unhappy place.

According to White’s version the unhappiest people are inhabitants of Burundi (178th place), Zimbabwe (177th place) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (176th place). A bit happier are inhabitants of Moldova (175th place) and Ukraine (174th place). 173rd place belongs to Sudan, 172nd – to Armenia, 171st – to Turkmenistan, 170th – to Belarus and 169th to Georgia.
White created his map of happiness on the basis of an analysis of responses of 80,000 people from all over the world. “When people are asked whether they are satisfied with their life, people from countries that have a good healthcare system, a higher per capita GDP and access to education are more inclined to give positive answers,” White noted. The scientist acknowledges that those factors are not ideal criteria of happiness, but argues that these data are the most available.

So Ukraine isn't actually the unhappiest place. A lot of Ukrainians are going to be unhappy about that.

I see an opportunity here for a Magical Misery Tour package. It would start maybe in Zimbabwe, where you'll be rousted from urban squats by Mugabe's goons and sent to the countryside to "farm"; then on to Congo, where you'll enjoy refugee status for a week and fall victim to a UN pedophilia ring; then it's on to a three-day bender in the Zaporizha oblast of Ukraine, at the end of which you lose your factory job and howl angrily at a Chernobyl reactor; from there, you head to Sudan for some ethnic cleansing....

This package will be a hit in Germany. Can't you already hear the commercial jingle?

The Magical Misery Tour
Is going to let you view graves
Make you see men turned to slaves
Take it today....

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Meet the new boss - same as the old boss

August 3, 2006 06:03 AM

Man, did I screw this up

In Ukraine a politician can always fall back on the virtues of "unity." So it is with today's agreement to appoint Viktor Yanukovich as prime minister. President Yushchenko didn't just get politically bear-whacked by a lumbering, dull-witted circus creature - he united the country!

I'm not sure this unity ploy is going to pass muster among Ukrainians hoping for someone with... well, with a shorter rap sheet.

Twice, in 1968 and 1970, Yanukovych was convicted and imprisoned for robbery and bodily injury. During 2004 presidential election, he announced having been acquitted of guilt back in 1978. However, no documentation has been presented, which raised suspicions of forgery. [link here]

Thug life fo-eva.

That 1978 declaration is suspect. In fact, the crime for which Vik claimed vindication was somewhat more egregious than the ones listed above. I will not name it, because I have been unable to find a link just yet.

And no, Ukrainian blog reports do not constitute independent confirmation that it occurred.

While I'm looking, I thought you all might like to see a photo of one of Yanukovich's poll workers from election night.

One day, perhaps he too will have things expunged from his criminal record. I thought it wise to get this photo of him early that evening, in case some shenanigans went down and he disappeared. Fine, call it profiling. The way I see it, don't walk around in a stocking cap unless you want people to think you're a burglar.

As it happened, our friend seemed far more interested in observing us, the international observers. Specifically, our group's young Polish gal, Anya. We escaped when he fell asleep around 6 a.m.

Anyway, back to Yanukovich. Although he clearly had leverage in the negotiations - his party breezed to a plurality win in the Rada elections - many people are simply going to be shocked by this outcome. Throughout, the consensus seemed to be that, no, Yushchenko would not dissolve parliament - his party would probably fare even worse in a second round of elections - and, no, he would never settle for Yanukovich. There would have to be some compromise candidate. Some humiliations are too great even for Yushchenko, who by now is a connoisseur of the art. The constitutional changes that went into effect at the new year have greatly enhanced the power of Ukraine's prime minister, whoever it might be. So, in choosing Yanukovich, Yushchenko would essentially be appointing his presidential rival to an office higher than the one he lost. For a president who has insisted that Ukraine must join NATO and the WTO - maybe even the EU - this was a neat way to tell his new Western friends that he seriously blew it. Which he did.

Now he's waving - but not revealing - a National Unity Pact, signed by Yanukovich, that supposedly commits Ukraine to its current West-leaning direction. Maybe so. Yanukovich's party - Regions - is essentially a consortium of thieving oligarchs. And if they understand anything, it's that their future business opportunities lie in the West. (Indeed, Rada membership gives full license to pursue them.) So perhaps they can unify behind a common agenda.

And who knows - the spirit of unity might just prompt the new prime minister to learn Ukrainian. Anything's possible, I guess.

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Orange Bust

July 14, 2006 07:41 AM

My take on the collapse of the Orange coalition in Ukraine, here.

UPDATE: Welcome RealClearPolitics readers! Have a look around, make yourselves at home, etc. (In proper Ukrainian fashion, leave your shoes by the door.) Please don't leave prints on the crystalware - I just bought that. There will be photos from Tymoshenko's tent city on Independence Square later in the day.

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Puntin' Putin

May 24, 2006 09:39 AM

The GUAM summit closes in Kiev with more interesting developments:

KIEV, May 23 - Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova at a summit on Tuesday decided to strengthen their alliance that is expected to play a key role in establishing alternative energy supplies to the European Union.
The alliance, previously known as GUAM, obtained the status of a full-fledged international bloc to be headquartered in Kiev and will be called the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development GUAM.

The bloc will focus on “forming a democratic space, security, humanitarian and social development, European and Euro-Atlantic integration,” President Viktor Yushchenko said after the summit.

The creation of the bloc is a bold step in promoting energy supply routes linking the Caspian Sea basin and consumers in the E.U. allowing to reduce heavy dependence on Russian energy.

One of the main projects to be promoted is launching supplies of Caspian Sea crude oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan via Georgian and Ukrainian pipelines to markets in Europe.

Democratic rights? Shared security? Euro-Atlantic integration? Alternatives to Russian energy? World Statesman Vladimir Putin must grow in confidence by the day!

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Sober Business Dealings

May 17, 2006 09:17 AM

From a guide to "Business Meetings and Negotiations in Ukraine" ($24.95, www.worldbiz.com):

If you are concerned about being forced to drink too much, which is often not a groundless concern, you may get around it by slowing [sic] sipping your drink. You may find the other people at the table downing the whole drink with a flourish. For Americans who are not used to drinking in this fashion, you can just sip with a flourish, so that in the next round there is not much to pour into your glass. If you are out in Siberia, where bottoms up is the law of the table, that is not going to work. But in Ukraine you can get away with it. It would be offensive to say "I have to go back to work. I really can't drink." One excuse not to drink is to tell your host that you are driving. That is the perfect excuse, because there is zero tolerance of drinking and driving in Ukraine. Another other [sic] excuse which works well is to say that you are on medication, or you are allergic.

Not listed as a suitable excuse: "I don't drink."

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Statesmanship for Dummies

May 12, 2006 03:14 PM

Anatole Lieven finds that Vladimir Putin in Dick Cheney are similar in so many ways. And isn't it obvious? One's busily turning Russia back into a dictatorship, where political opponents are jailed, the media are kept on a short leash and international groups are presumed agents of foreign powers if they press Russia on human rights and democracy -- and the other guy is Vice President of the United States. So the similarities are readily apparent. But wait:

But to judge by their records, and especially their speeches of the past week, there is also an important difference between them. Putin is a statesman, and Cheney is not.

Uh, how's that?

Cheney's tub-thumping speech in Vilnius, Lithuania, attacking Russia for lack of democracy and energy "blackmail," coupled with his attempts to create an energy alliance against Russia, invited a blistering response from the Russian president. With perfect fairness, and with the approval - in this case - of most of humanity, Putin could have torn Cheney's speech apart on a whole range of issues.

Among that segment of humanity that wouldn't tear apart the speech: Cheney's audience of leaders from the former Soviet republics, to whom the speech was directed. I guess they consider Putin's statesmanship to be overrated.

These include the hypocrisy of denouncing Russia over democracy and going straight on to lavish praise on the oil- rich dictators of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan; the general weirdness of Cheney talking about human rights at all; the insolence of an administration with the Bush-Cheney team's record in the Middle East daring to demand automatic Russian support against Iran in the name of "the international community," and so on.

Of course we all giggle when Cheney mentions human rights. It's so weird. But someone will have to clue me in on what "record in the Middle East" precludes the Bush administration from worrying about Iranian nukes and the help provided to the program by Russia.

And of course we're hypocrites. We have nukes and we don't want Iran to have them. Putin might just as well have pointed that out, too.

If Putin had issued such a response in his state of the union address on Wednesday, he would have had the approval of the overwhelming majority of Russians - while of course doing still further damage to U.S.-Russian relations.

It is hard to imagine a U.S. president turning down a domestic political opportunity like this, whatever the likely effect on his country's interests. But apart from a couple of mild and indirect comments, Putin said none of these things. Instead, he focused on the issue that is indeed the greatest threat to the Russian nation, namely demographic decline.

Oh please. Putin left the demagoguery to the Kremlin-controlled media. Dictatorship has those kinds of advantages.

Putin's calm response to Cheney may be rooted partly in a new confidence in Russia's strength, especially when it comes to influence within the former Soviet Union. One of the marks of Putin's statesmanship is that with some exceptions (mainly with regard to Ukraine, about which Russians tend to be irrational) he has displayed an accurate feel for Russia's real strengths and weaknesses.

Yeah, that Ukraine thing was a doozy. But of course we all remember Bush campaigning for a favored candidate in Mexico, poisoning his opponent with Dioxin and shutting off the country's access to a critical natural resource when he didn't get his way. Statesmen behave that way sometimes.

To give one example, Putin last year withdrew the remaining Russian military bases from Georgia proper, where they were provocative and vulnerable, while continuing the Russian military presence in the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where it enjoys overwhelming local support.

Gosh. If getting kicked out of Georgia gives Putin such confidence, imagine how great he'll feel when Georgia and Ukraine abandon the Commonwealth of Independent States and join NATO....

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The Wages of Fear

May 8, 2006 05:26 AM

UPDATE 5/11: Reference to Georgia clarified from original post.

The Vilnius Summit is turning into a potential watershed in East-West relations. Last week, VP Cheney chided Russia for its backsliding on democracy and human rights. Georgia is poised to leave the Russia-led Commonwealth of Independent States. And now Ukraine looks poised to follow, reports the AP:

The press service of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko organized a special briefing on the future of the CIS by the head of the foreign relations service of the president's secretariat Konstantin Timoshenko. Mr. Timoshenko reported that the Ukrainian leadership is not satisfied with the effectiveness of the organization's functioning and that the president is seriously considering Ukraine's withdrawal from it.
“Unless something changes, the question of Ukraine's withdrawal from the CIS will become a practical plan, if not tomorrow, then in the near future,” Timoshenko said.

The presidential adviser's appearance was the apotheosis of a series of anti-CIS moves by Ukrainian authorities. For a week, various officials have been harshly criticizing the CIS. Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Ogryzko set the tone when he stated during a visit to Moscow that Kiev is disappointed the CIS has turned from an organization of action to an organization of conversation.

He said that Ukraine has repeatedly made specific proposals within the CIS and none of them were developed by the organization.

Ogryzko cited the example of President Yushchenko's proposal to set up common border protection for the CIS countries, which was ignored. “Will there be any desire to make new proposals after that? The question arises as to why we need that shell? For business or as a club?”

The Ukrainian Security Council followed the Foreign Ministry. Its secretary Anatoly Kinakh hit at a sore spot when he said that the CIS has lost its economic meaning. “Hundreds of documents have been passed by the CIS, but they are not implemented. The procedure for creating a free trade zone between member states has not been completed,” he recalled.

Yushchenko did not touch on the topic of the CIS directly at the Vilnius summit. But it was clear from his speech at the forum that the CIS is not the future Kiev has in mind. Yushchenko called maximum closeness to NATO and the European Union the main goals of his presidency. “It will be a great honor for me to solve those problems,” he said.

No the honor's ours, Vik. Meanwhile, top Bush administration officials are working on oil agreements with countries like Azerbaijan and Equatorial Guinea -- presumably in an effort to lessen reliance on Russian oil. There's a chill in the air, no?

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Pinchuk Meets POGO

April 27, 2006 01:56 AM

As predicted, Spielberg's production partner here in Ukraine is feeling the heat from prosecutors now that he's left the Rada. And they won't be voting in another new parliament for five years....

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Diplomacy at Warp Speed

April 25, 2006 09:51 AM

The American ambassador in Kiev, John Herbst, is denying reports that President Bush sent official congratulations to Viktor Yanukovich following his party's victory in the March 26 parliamentary elections. Glad he cleared that up. And to think it took just a week to issue the statement! Probably just in time to -- well, no, probably not....

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In and Out

April 20, 2006 03:58 PM

Kyiv's one-time mayor-for-life refuses to leave office, despite a third-place finish in the March 26 election -- oh, and the swearing-in of his successor. Hey, at least he agreed to stand for election, right?

Omelchenko had said several days earlier that he planned to continue litigation to keep his job, although at least two Kyiv courts have said he doesn’t have the right to.
The same day he was sworn in, Chernovetsky officially fired Omelchenko, his staff and the head of a local television station, who has since checked into hospital, presumably to hold on to his job, too.

Omelchenko has called the dismissals illegal and accused the Interior Ministry of conniving with Chernovetsky to have his office seized by police, even raising concerns that they might try to plant drugs or weapons there.

To anyone familiar with Ukrainian power politics, none of this is unusual during transfers of authority. Winner takes all, and losers cling to their offices from hospital beds or until paramilitary units in flak jackets drag them out on to the street.

As for courts, they reverse each other’s decisions with such regularity, that one wonders if they are subject to the same laws.

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Mission: Yulia

April 18, 2006 06:52 AM

Went to see Yulia Tymoshenko speak Monday night at the old Lenin Museum (now called Ukraine House) on Khreshatyk. To say that the event, put together by the American Chamber of Commerce, was "standing room only" is an understatement. The top-floor conference room was jammed -- a conservative estimate would put the attendance at around 350 -- and the level of media coverage suggested that this was considered to be an important event.

On the rudiments, it was typical Yulia: forceful, composed, engaging, on occasion charming. It is impossible not to be impressed by the sheer energy and nerve she brings to the political sphere here. As with the country's corporate sphere, the upper reaches of Ukrainian politics are still male-dominated to a degree that one no longer sees in America and Western Europe. (Western commentators who suggest that Communism at least brought gender equality to the societies under its yoke have no idea what they're talking about. I'm looking at you, Seamus Milne....) And Yulia is the exception who proves the rule. It is almost inconceivable that another woman exists in Ukraine with the grit and dynamism that has enabled Yulia to break through to the extent she has. Can anyone name another successful party worldwide whose name is eponomous with its leader? (Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko, or BYuT). "My ambition is to make Ukraine one of the jewels of the world, and no one is going to stop me," she said (through the translator) at the conclusion of the event. She is unique.

Yulia's least attractive quality is her taste for self-pity, which combines easily with her nose for conspiracy. Clearly cognizant that she was addressing a business audience, Yulia went to some lengths to stress that her reputation as a populist determined to complete the process of re-privatization was a creation of mass media enterprises controlled by her political opponents. While I don't doubt that such entities exist, Yulia provided plenty of public utterances to support the allegation during her fore-shortened tenure as prime minister last year. She ought not be surprised when, for instance, her attacks on the gas deal are interpreted as demagogic. They were demagogic. (I'm thinking especially of her charge that Yekhanurov sold-out Ukraine to Russia.)

Given that the latter episode gave her common cause with Viktor Yanukovich and his political bloc, her disavowals of any intention to form a coalition with the Regions party were surprisingly harsh. "The Party of the Regions is not a party," she said at one point. "It's just one big corporation," designed to enrich its "shareholders." She repeatedly referred to the once-and-perhaps-future Orange alliance -- BYuT, Our Ukraine and the Socialists -- as the Democratic Coalition, in presumed contrast to Yanukovich's group and, of course, the Communists, who also made it into the new Rada (and have indicated no interest in being part of any coalition). She cast her bid for prime minister as an obvious entitlement for the "governing" party, as BYuT would represent by far the largest bloc in a majority coalition with OU and Moroz's Socialists.

But how would a Tymoshenko government govern? As is often the case with Yulia, regardless of the issues under discussion, Yulia herself is the real issue. She pushed all the usual buttons the foreign capital class would like to see pushed -- judicial reform, rule of law, property rights, elimination of corruption -- but these are matters that any prime minister would place at the top of the agenda. The question is whether there are any practical solutions available, and whether they can realistically be imposed. Yes, it may be quite true that even the simplest land deals require 127 different signatures and consequently take three or four years to complete; and it was admirably candid of Tymoshenko to admit "the bribes will (ultimately) exceed the price of the plot by two times." But how you get from recognition of the problem to the resolution of it -- in this case, Yulia envisions a system that requires maybe five signatures and takes a week to a month -- is fundamental.

Truth be told, Ukraine's problems do not call for visionaries; they call for full-bore implementers, perhaps in the Giuliani mold. That means politicians willing to attack and offend the establishment without mercy, and trust the public to trust them. It's hard to see Yulia as this person, in large part because her popularity relies on maintenaning a cult of personality in which she is an intrepid mother-figure, a scourge of the ruling oligarchs, who will finally unite Ukraine in her benevolent embrace. At Monday's event, she was unable even to commit to ending the absurd legal immunity extended to Rada deputies, vowing instead to "name names" in the interests of "transparency." This of course plays to her strength, which is, well, naming names. But shame is not much of a disciplinary factor in Ukraine. (In fact, what you or I consider shameful behavior is kinda admired by a segment of the population.) And besides, what accountability is there when every deputy is just another name on a party list? This last election tested that proposition, and Regions, which has been the party of choice for virtually every scoundrel and thief since independence, scored a big victory. (She also suggested she would give the Rada's minority -- Regions, basically -- control of the accounting chamber, in the belief that such responsibility would make this group less likely to engage in shenanigans. Sorry, but I'm not following the argument here....) Yulia talks like a reformer, but ultimately she wants to win pageants. There is, alas, no room in this drama for someone who sacks half the bureaucracy and overhauls the tax system.

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the biennial automobile revolution

April 14, 2006 07:00 AM

Yes, it is difficult to reconcile Viktor Yushchenko's miserable poll ratings with the selfless service provided Ukraine by administration figures such as Olexiy Ivchenko, head of the state oil and gas firm Naftogaz and proud owner of a new top-of-the-line Mercedes.

Ivchenko said the car was bought by a Naftogaz subsidiary for his use because "since 1992 I've ridden around in the latest models. The only thing that's changed is that every two years I have upgraded to the latest Mercedes model... I won't betray my traditions."
"I think that a director of such an enterprise should ride around in the most decent and most expensive car," Ivchenko told Ukrainian media after the report was published in Ukrainska Pravda.

The car's cost "is a drop in the ocean that can hardly affect Naftogaz's finances," he said.

Ivchenko also defended his use of an orphan as a hood ornament, saying he is "the only father the boy has ever known...."

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Babi Yargghhh

April 11, 2006 08:33 AM

So Steven Spielberg has teamed up with Viktor Pinchuk -- a billionaire businessman and outgoing parliament deputy whose public corruption helped launch the Orange Revolution -- to make a documentary about the Holocaust in Ukraine. Hmmmm. I'm no public relations pro, and I'm down with the Shoah project as much as the next Yid, but I still can't help thinking this arrangement is going to come back and bite Spielberg on the ass. When? Roundabout the time someone clues in the LAT or WSJ.... Interesting tidbit: As he exits parliament, Pinchuk loses his absolute immunity from prosecution. At one time, before he self-spayed, Yushchenko gave firebrand campaign speeches in which he denounced Khryvorizhstal and other such deals, and vowed to "throw the bastards in jail." A lot of Ukrainians have wondered what happened to that pledge.... Complicating factor: Pinchuk's partner in the Khryvorizhstal deal is entering parliament just as Pinchuk leaves it. It's almost like the two tycoons arranged it that way for some odd reason....

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It's All Greek to Them

April 11, 2006 08:07 AM

Just exactly how many official languages is Serbia and Montenegro prepared to have? The precedent is now set for the introduction of Spanish... and it's about time, I say. P.S. I live in Ukraine and don't hear much Ukrainian. I'm told they speak it in the Western oblasts, though. Sounds as if there may soon be more Ukrainian spoken in Belgrade than Sevastopol....

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So, I guess things didn't work out, then

April 10, 2006 08:39 AM

One Belgian company is calling it quits here, the Kyiv Post reports:

“We want out of here!” said Lee Fockenier, the commercial director and co-owner of Magic, a Ukrainian subsidiary of Belgian-registered Propharex, which sets up and sells pharmaceutical plants in Third World countries.
Fockenier said he is “worn out and exhausted,” and that his legal adversary, Zdorovya Narodu (People’s Health) intended things to work out that way.

Yes, even the drug makers get sick in the Third World.

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Truth to be told

April 6, 2006 06:19 AM

There's so much sound wisdom and pure common sense in this piece from Timothy Garton Ash in today's Guardian of London newspaper that, for just one moment, you may wonder if he's secretly American. This point is especially well taken:

Roughly one in three Ukrainian voters, mainly in the more Russian-oriented east of the country, chose Yanukovich. That's about 10% less than he probably got in the rigged presidential election of 2004 that sparked the orange revolution. The so-called orange vote was split between the now feuding leaders of the orange revolution, Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Timoshenko, but their combined vote exceeded that for Yanukovich. Voters, except in the pro-western western end of the country, punished Yushchenko for disappointed hopes, economic mess, continued widespread corruption, dealing badly with the Russian gas squeeze at the beginning of the year, and falling out with Yulia. Fair on some counts, less so on others. But the essential point remains: the people could choose in a free and fair election. They can bring an old rogue back, if they want; then they can chuck him out again. It's democracy, stupid.

Ash also touches on an issue that had likewise occurred to me in the days following Ukraine's vote, when a Ukrainian friend noted that some political parties were alleging fraud at the polls. This was her way of suggesting that Ukraine had relapsed into its customary, non-democratic ways. Let's leave aside the issue of whether it's possible to have 45 political parties on a ballot without any of them claiming improprieties after the vote -- and we'll even concede that various types of fraud may have occurred here or there throughout the country, though not on any scale that should compromise the result. The fact is, the vote itself was probably less susceptible to fraud and manipulation than the balloting in any typical American election. And I say that as a certified jingoist! Granted, we Americans are always to expect a certain amount of chicanery because of the premium on turnout -- that is, parties can't take it for granted -- as well as the wide variability in ballot types and voting procedures. That's not to excuse it, but only to suggest that Western countries might strive to achieve "Ukrainian standards" in something, for a change.

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Back from America...

March 24, 2006 05:41 AM

...and credentialed to serve as an international observer for this Sunday's parliamentary elections in Ukraine. It's a daunting business, in part because the concepts of process and accountability are rather new to these parts. (Witness the vote in Belarus last weekend.) In the training that took place yesterday we were told to be attentive to the prospect that many local officials who will be managing the actual polling sites may be unfamiliar with the particulars of the election law and have only a limited notion of how proper balloting ought to be conducted. So we observers were advised to offer guidance and recommendations if things seem to be getting off-track, provided we don't disrupt the voting.

Of greater interest to me, at least, was the political briefing we were given at the beginning of the workshop by an analyst from the Democratic Initiatives Foundation. He mostly showed us some recent polls taken by his organization, and the results were surprising. Most surprising was the finding that voters who said they plan to vote for Yushchenko's party, Our Ukraine, were actually the most motivated. This rubs against conventional wisdom, which is that Yushchenko has been such an all-round let-down that he would have a very difficult time turning out his base, which is young and upwardly mobile. Still, while his backers may be the most motivated, they are also now a far smaller segment of the overall electorate than might have been the case a year ago. Our Ukraine is hovering around 15 percent right now, only slightly ahead of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. And both trail far behind the Party of the Regions, led by Viktor Yanukovich, the one-time goat of the Orange Revolution who has enjoyed a political renaissance because of Yushchenko's troubles. Regions has about 30.4 percent in the latest poll, which is just about where it's been for months. If those numbers hold, they would translate into about 186 deputies -- give or take 10 -- in the next Verkhovna Rada, according to the pollster.

The level of voter interest is striking. According to the polls we were shown, 91 percent of Ukrainian voters said they plan to cast a ballot, and 79 percent said they would do so "definitely." Meanwhile, only 10 percent of the electorate claimed to be either undecided or disinclined to support any of the choices available. Since there are 45 parties on the ballot, one is left to wonder what kind of political platform the "none of the above" types are holding out for. In any case, the analyst suggested that turnout in Kiev, where I'll be stationed, will probably be around 65 percent. And while that's not quite at the level projected for the rest of the country, it is still high enough to create the prospect of long lines and long waits, which could themselves become a factor in the outcome. Fewer than 50 percent of the likely voters indicated they would stay on line "as long as it takes" -- but again, it was Yushchenko's base that indicated the greatest willingness to see things through. As for myself, seeing matters through may turn out to be a 24-hour process, according to others with whom I've discussed "observer" status. We will have to be at the polls by 6:15 in the morning, and the balloting technically ends at 10:00 that evening. Officially, however, voters who are on the premises at closing time are entitled to cast a ballot. There's no telling how long that might drag things out. And then there's the tabulation of the votes, which will continue on into the morning -- even without any hitches. Here's hoping I don't wind up as one of the observers who then has to accompany the ballots as they are delivered to the central election headquarters in Kiev....

P.S. Asked for his opinion, the political analyst who briefed us predicted that an "Orange" coalition -- led by Yushchenko's and Tymoshenko's parties -- would emerge from the parliamentary vote, but would soon fall apart. No one here would be surprised to see that happen. But the analyst suggested the succeeding arrangement would involve some combination of Our Ukraine and Regions, and to me that's fairly implausible. Such a coalition could be formed only if Yanukovich is to be appointed prime minister. And while there have been murmurs around Kiev about a creeping rapprochement between Yushchenko and Yanukovich forces, it is almost inconceivable that Yushchenko would assent to this. Even Tymoshenko has forsworn any alliance with Yanukovich, and the arrangement would almost certainly scuttle Yushchenko's principal policy goals, beginning with membership in NATO and the WTO. (The latter is critical if Ukraine is to compete economically with Russia.) More likely, in the event an Orange coalition collapses, is that parliamentarians would be unable to agree on a new government and would then be dissolved, with new elections called for the fall.

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echo of yesteryear

February 25, 2006 12:35 PM

On the 50-year anniversary of Khruschev's "secret speech," which began the de-Stalinization of Soviet Russia, Seamus Milne of London's Guardian newspaper revives the voice of the useful idiot.

But in any case, none of this explains why anyone might be nostalgic in former communist states, now enjoying the delights of capitalist restoration. The dominant account gives no sense of how communist regimes renewed themselves after 1956 or why western leaders feared they might overtake the capitalist world well into the 1960s.

True, you don't hear much these days about how we once hilariously believed the Soviet Union would pose an economic threat to the West. Ten minutes here in Kiev would have dispelled that nonsense. Some of us no longer fear the Cuban economic miracle, either.

For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment, captured even by critical films and books of the post-Stalin era such as Wajda's Man of Marble and Rybakov's Children of the Arbat. Its existence helped to drive up welfare standards in the west, boosted the anticolonial movement and provided a powerful counterweight to western global domination....[snip]

So you're telling me I can learn to read, hold a job, experience "social and gender equality" and strike a blow against western hegemony -- and all I need to do is submit to the whims of the state, live in permanent terror of denunciation and maybe lose half my family in one misguided social experiment or another? Where do I sign up?

Part of the current enthusiasm in official western circles for dancing on the grave of communism is no doubt about relations with today's Russia and China. But it also reflects a determination to prove there is no alternative to the new global capitalist order - and that any attempt to find one is bound to lead to suffering and bloodshed....[snip]

Of course. That must be what They really want. As Stalin himself might say, that's why they must be killed.

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Yushchenko closes the gap?

February 23, 2006 06:27 PM

Most recent Ukraine polling results, published today by Sotsinform:

"If the election was held now, the following parties and blocs would be in the parliament: the Party of Regions – 26.82%, NSNU – 19.35%, BYuT – 16.67%, People’s Bloc of Lytvyn – 7.72%, the Socialist Party of Ukraine – 7.09%, the Communist Party – 4.79% and PORA-PRP – 3.83%."

If the numbers are accurate -- and in Ukraine that's always open to question -- it suggests that Yushchenko's party, NSNU, has sheared about 10 points from the lead enjoyed by Yanukovich's Party of the Regions in the last poll I saw, which was probably two weeks ago. This poll also suggests that retired boxer Vitaliy Klitschko, who tops the PORA list, has a pretty good shot at parliament. (Parties need to break the 3 percent threshhold at the polls in order to be represented in the Rada.)

Side note: NSNU has been doing a lot of TV recently, with spots that press a variant of the "Slava Ukraina" ("Glory to Ukraine") theme. The ads have this odd chant behind them that sounds like it might come from some Native American war dance. Perhaps someone knows its source?

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From Russia, With Chutzpah

February 13, 2006 04:40 AM

NIKITA KHRUSCHEV'S great-granddaughter, Nina, introduces a less familiar legacy of her famous forebear: freedomishness.

While it hadn't gone far enough in demystifying the totalitarian system, [Khruschev's "secret"] speech had launched the period known as the thaw, when millions of Soviet citizens were released from the gulag, and opened the door to a more frank exchange of ideas and to a limited flow of foreign visitors and goods. The freedoms that the former communist countries enjoy today have flowed from the cracks in the system that Khrushchev introduced with his speech of Feb. 25, 1956....

Wow, and to think it only took 50 years for all this flowing from cracks to become a trickling stream of stunted liberty! Of course, Hungary got to express its gratitude for this thaw to the column of Red Army tanks that rolled in later that year. (Oh, c'mon, Mister Stingy -- at least Khruschev started the ball rolling. People ought to be grateful for that - hlm. I agree! Now excuse me while I turn to my assailant here and thank him for no longer clanging my head with a pan.)

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Dog Dane Afternoon

February 10, 2006 07:25 AM

Who knew there were Iranians in Kiev? I didn't, until I ran into my Danish friend Lars on the street this morning. Half tongue-in-cheek, I asked Lars, who handles security issues between Ukraine and the Scandinavian countries, whether the Danish embassy was still intact. Yes, he told me, but as a matter of fact the embassy saw its first cartoon protests just this morning. (They've had police protection out front since Monday.) He said the 30-odd protestors included representatives from a local Islamic Association and some Iranians who are students at some of the local universities. No major disruptions, but the Danes decided to close for the day, just in case.

I was curious to see what practicing Muslims looked like in Ukraine -- I had never seen one here, and let's just say that Ukraine is not the safest place on earth for non-whites, if there were to be any (non-whites) in this crowd. Since the embassy is only a couple of blocks from my flat, I quickly headed home, grabbed my notebook and camera, and headed for the site. Unfortunately, by the time I reached the embassy the crowd had already left, though I did spot one woman in hijab buying a coke at a nearby kiosk. But what struck me anyhow was one minor detail that remainded: the Danes had taken down their flag, as well as the EU flag that customarily flies beside it. I could not imagine that the United States -- or even France -- would respond similarly. What an awful capitulation in the face of such cretinous incitement. Even if you close for the day in the interests of staff safety (fair enough), you don't let them take down your flag. I headed back to my apartment, wondering what I might see at the Swedish embassy, which is across the street. Sure enough....

It's easy for me to judge, though. The Danes and the Swedes don't imagine themselves as provocatuers; they can't make sense of the strange hatred and violence directed at them; they aren't accustomed to the rent-a-mobs that are routinely sent to pester U.S. consulates for the pleasure of satellite viewers. Part of the privilege of being American is in feeling a perverse exhilaration, not fear, when I see the mob burning my flag in the streets of Tehran or Damascus. It is the exhilaration of knowing that my flag represents everything the busily benighted are fighting against: liberty, tolerance, robust dignity. Until they can get their grimy little hands on me, they're just going to have to settle for the flag. And they couldn't possibly face a tougher adversary. The flag will hate them back; it will never stand for cynical neutrality between opposites, like the Swiss flag. But what happens when you replace pride with modesty, and still they burn your flag? When do you stop surrendering if you can't possibly comprehend the source of the grievance? At some point, Denmark, you just have to let the flag fly.

UPDATE: Do not miss Michael Kinsley's ruminations on the cartoon riots in today's Washington Post.

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She loves to surprise us

February 4, 2006 11:32 AM

Some encouraging words from Yulia Tymoshenko at the European Parliament:

Ms Tymoshenko plans to form a new coalition with Mr Yushchenko's parliamentary party, Our Ukraine, after the election despite last year's rift.
"We have a chance to be united in the new parliament. I will support president Yushchenko in the new parliament, we will try to join forces," she said, adding "We will not create a coalition with Mr Yanukovych under any circumstances." [emphasis mine]

This is a welcome development, but also puzzling in its own way. In negotiations for a possible coalition with Yushchenko, Tymoshenko's principal condition -- strongly resisted by Yushchenko's forces -- has been that she would become prime minister once again after the the parliamentary elections on March 26. The implied threat, of course, was that Tymoshenko's bloc would partner up with Yanukovich to form an opposition majority in the Rada. And while it has never been clear how Tymoshenko would become prime minister in that arrangement, that prospect was nevertheless the only leverage she had at hand with Yushchenko. Unless I'm missing something, she just threw it away.

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Putin Putters Out

January 21, 2006 09:28 AM

Mark Almond of Oxford University gets it exactly right in London's Guardian today.

The murky Swiss-based arrangements for divvying up the compromise price agreed between Gazprom, Russia's state-controlled gas company, and its Ukrainian partners cannot disguise the reality that Russia lost out in the quarrel. The EU rallied against its major energy partner, and behind Washington.

That's the bottom line. Many smart folks, including the indispensible Dan McMinn, have pored over the Swiss-brokered agreement and found areas that suggest the pact may not be terrific in the long run. Fine. But that's a game for another day. The game that was being played at the stroke of the New Year was whether Putin could isolate Ukraine and send a message to other uppity CIS nations. He lost that fight.

Where Putin might have found a bit more success was in suggesting to Ukrainians, before the March parliamentary elections, that there was a price to pay for Yushchenko's dalliances with the West (more below). Still, in the long run Russia has been exposed as a paper tiger -- unable to back up its threats with its most valuable asset. Russia needs to export its gas every bit as much as the West needs to receive it.

So, you ask, if this was such a blow to Russia, why are we having a huge constitutional crisis in Ukraine right now, premised on the notion that the Yekhanurov government failed to get a worthy agreement? Because it's election season, and cynics like Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovich will quite naturally try to get as much mileage as they can from the opening Putin provided them. And they may well succeed (though I don't think that the Rada's move to "fire" the government will survive a constitutional test). But my hunch is that Yushchenko and his party have already lost the vote of every Ukrainian who believes Ukraine future lies to the East, with Russia.

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Ukraine's Gas Pains

January 12, 2006 09:15 AM

Well, tireless (okay, tiresome) searching has failed to yield an English-language translation of Ukrainian Law 2222-IV, which amended the constitution in 2004 and appears to be at issue in the latest effort to fire the government. That being the case, I have no reliable way to judge the constitutionality of the decision, but that won't keep me from offering half-baked, semi-informed commentary!

1) There is no indication that the vote will have any practical effect before the March parliamentary elections. Government stays in place.

1) The whole scheme seems to have been cooked up by Yulia Tymoshenko, which ought to be a surprise, since last time we saw her she was angling for reappointment as prime minister. I haven't taken a full survey of the democratic world, but my metrosexual intuition tells me that destabilizing the government at a critical juncture in its modern history is the long way round to winning trust. So why, Yulia? Why? My hunch is that Tymoshenko wanted to send the message that she can muster the political resources to make life difficult for Viktor Yushchenko. She knows, among other things, that Yushchenko would not have been able to appoint Yekhanurov as PM without help from Viktor Yanukovich, the oaf who ran against him for president in 2004. She also knows there is no way Yushchenko will (consciously) put himself in a position where Yanukovich can emerge as a compromise PM after the elections. He's made his last deal with the clod. That leaves Tymoshenko, who will most likely muster the second or third largest parliamentary block after the March balloting. Yushchenko has tried to set up Yanukovich as the alternative to Yekhanurov, betting that Tymoshenko and her eponymously named party would go with Yekhanurov on that one. But this latest move by Tymoshenko shows that she's just crazy enough to bond with the Yanukovich forces when it suits her political purposes.

3) But, Ethan, just what are her political purposes? I just told you, dummy! But if I were forced to elaborate further, I would note that all reports to date suggest her ultimate goal is the presidency in 2008. Note that the Yushchenko/Yekhanurov deal on gas from Russia was the pretext for the rebellion in parliament. It's a two-fer: Yulia gets to play the role of economic populist, which still goes over in these parts, and she gets to beat up on Russia -- another popular trope -- which strengthens her nationalist bona fides. The bonus is that she gets to beat up on Russia while secretly thanking Putin for providing the pretext for attacks on Yushchenko, even though Yushchenko got the best bargain Ukraine could have hoped for from the gas agreement. Brilliant!

4) Do you really think she thought all that through? Yes! There are eleven dimensions of sophistication (and cynicism) in Tymoshenko's political universe. I think the Rada episode occurred in about five of them. Okay, six.

5) Do you really think it is conceivable that she would join with Yanukovich, when that would tarnish her forever as a sell-out? Well, let me ask you a question: If you were Yushchenko, would you really want to find out? Yulia is not just a politician, she is a volatile force of nature who must be harnessed for stability to be achieved. Like Jesse Jackson.

6) Why are you still answering questions about an event that has no practical relevance? Oh, but it does! If Yushchenko gets the message Tymoshenko wants him to hear, he'll tread a little more carefully around her in the run-up to the elections. I don't think you will hear any more about her "corruption" from him.

7) Did you know that Yushchenko removed his name from the infamous "Yanukovich memorandum" in the aftermath of all this? A meaningless gesture. Yushchenko will be punished by voters for signing in the first place -- not thanked for backing out once its terms were violated by Yanukovich. Yushchenko voters already knew that Yanukovich was a snake; the mystery was why Yushchenko didn't....

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"Christmas" in Malin, Ukraine

January 9, 2006 03:41 PM

When I grow older, I wanna be a murderous dictator!

All you need to know about Soviet life can be summed up in the photo above. It is a statue of V.I. Lenin himself -- albeit as a lad -- and it sits in front of the kindergarten in Malin, Ukraine, about 90 miles West of Kiev. Malin has two massive bronze statues of Lenin in the city, including one in the town square. For five-year-olds, however, the regime decided that a more age-appropriate Lenin was warranted, and so we have this version, with wavy hair and the obligatory book under the arm. How inspiring.

I just returned to Kiev after a three-day visit to Malin, where I stayed with the family of a friend. Ukrainians live quite modestly, to say the least, but their hospitality is magnificent. Anyhow, the immediate occasion for this visit was Christmas, which on the Ukrainian Orthodox calendar falls on Jan. 7. We dined on borsch, stuffed cabbage, beets, cakes and even matyas (herring). Yeah, I know you're jealous.

Malin is one of those towns that really took a beating in WWII. It stood between the Nazis and Kiev, and then stood between the Soviets and Poland when the Nazi advance was finally turned back from Russia. It was, of course, difficult to sort out the "good guys" in a war between two of the three or four bloodiest tyrants in history. My gracious hostess, Marina, told me how, during the purges, Stalinists had picked up her grandfather and sent him off to the Gulag, to a camp on the infamous Belomor Kanal. The family actually knew nothing of his whereabouts until after Stalin's death in 1953, which was about 15 years after the abduction. As Kafka would have surely scripted it, a letter arrived one day from the Soviet government saying that the grandfather had died at the camp, but that he had been judged "not guilty" of the crimes for which he was arrested. These alleged crimes were never made clear to the family, but they learned he had been denounced by two members of the community for his religious (Christian) devotion. Marina's father subsequently confronted these men, asking them why they would accuse his father. The men responded that they had been under pressure from above to provide names in order to meet a town quota for arrests from the NKVD (a KGB predecessor). If they didn't finger anyone, it was they themselves who would likely have been used to meet the quota. The silver lining (if you can call it that) to this story is that the "not guilty" verdict spared the family some torments that afflicted the families of the "guilty." Marina, for instance, was able to obtain a visa for a group trip to Paris -- a perquisite that would have been unobtainable if she had been related to an "Enemy of the State." She now teaches French at a small university in Malin.

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The Good, the Bad, and the Oil

January 3, 2006 12:29 PM

So, let's see. This morning Gazprom was squealing like a stuck pig over its contention that Ukraine had diverted gas shipments routed to other countries, leading to significant shortfalls in deliveries. Soon after, Russia agreed to resume discussions with Ukraine in the dispute. By evening, Gazprom was swearing up and down that they have "completed work" that will enable everyone to receive the full gas allotment tomorrow -- but not Ukraine, which is still under embargo. Meanwhile, gas prices climbed above $63 a barrel.

So what kind of "work" was "completed"? Well, unless Russia built a brand new pipeline through the Baltic Sea in the last day or two, the developments indicate that we are waiting for Putin to come up with a face-saving way to fold his hand. I'll let this fellow Bill O'Grady explain:

``We're up in part because of the tragi-comic events occurring between Russia and Ukraine,'' said Bill O'Grady, an analyst with A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis. ``If there are persistent natural gas shortages, the way you address the situation is burning alternate fuels. The bigger problem is that perhaps Russia is not a dependable energy supplier.'' [Emphasis mine]

Bingo.

The question before Russia is quite simple: Can it meet its obligations or not? Before this showdown with Ukraine, the answer was an unqualified yes. The spat with Ukraine, however, has revealed two ominous portents in Russia's energy situation, both of them stemming from Putin's nationalization efforts. First, the stalemate indicates that supply contracts will only mean something until Putin says they don't. So, then, what value are the supply contracts that everyone is holding? At the same time, the stalemate has shown the cynicism with which Putin plans to wield his government's new industrial controls. Western governments will gladly buy gas from Russia, but only so long as the transaction terms are limited to cash-and-carry. If the price of delivery includes bending to Russia's will, many governments will seek alternatives -- either in other, less risky suppliers, or in technologies such as nuclear power. Politicians like to stabilize energy supplies, after all, because disruptions lead to political instability.

UPDATE: As predicted. Gazprom was going to have to settle for something far short of what it was demanding, and Putin needed to save face. What we've got, basically, is a modified version of what Yushchenko has been proposing all along: a gradual phase-in of market pricing. The question now is whether Putin's maneuvers have already sown doubt in European capitals about Russia's reliability as a supplier.

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The Good, the Bad, and the Oil

January 3, 2006 12:29 PM

``We're up in part because of the tragi-comic events occurring between Russia and Ukraine,'' said Bill O'Grady, an analyst with A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis. ``If there are persistent natural gas shortages, the way you address the situation is burning alternate fuels. The bigger problem is that perhaps Russia is not a dependable energy supplier.'' [Emphasis mine]

Bingo.

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Friends Like These...

December 30, 2005 07:48 AM

From Moskovsky Komsomolets, another reminder why former Soviet bloc countries don't trust security guarantees from Old Europe. Here's Iosif Diskin of the National Strategy Council in Russia:

"Europe's rhetoric has changed drastically over the last two weeks. Earlier, the issue was seen as purely political, it was about the evil Russia oppressing the most democratic Ukraine; but now they are simply worried about their own gas supplies.
"In this war of nerves Europe is a poor ally for Ukraine. It has begun to dawn on Kiev that at 10 a.m. on January 1 Russia will start sending only as much gas as has been bought by, say, Slovakia, Austria, Germany, etc. And if one of the addressees does not receive all or part of its order, we can easily prove that it has been stolen." [Emphasis mine]

[Translation: Novosti]

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Putin's Useful Idiot

December 26, 2005 05:18 AM

Imagine this: A sitting Member of Congress who disapproves President Bush's foreign policy opens an office in Calgary devoted to mustering opposition -- with, of course, the tacit approval of the host government. Now meet Natalya Vitrenko, the radical socialist who leads the New Opposition bloc in the Rada:

MOSCOW, Russia [AP] -- A Ukrainian lawmaker on Thursday harshly criticized her nation's plan to join NATO and opened an information center in Moscow aimed at opposing the move.... [snip]
"If Ukraine joins NATO, it will become an open enemy of Russia," said Vitrenko, who represents a fringe party. "Ukraine will host NATO bases presenting a direct military threat to Russia." ...

...she said, speaking from the capital of a country that remains a direct military threat and all-round antagonist to the country she ostensibly serves in parliament.

Yushchenko has made NATO membership a top goal.
Vitrenko, who ran in Ukraine's 1999 presidential election, spoke at the opening of the Anti-NATO Information Center, which is located on a freshly painted ground floor of a shabby apartment building at 10 Khokhlovsky Pereulok.

I'm wondering if this foreign NGO will survive Russia's new restrictions on outside agitators. Actually, I'm wondering why this group doesn't have Kremlin office space. Did Gerhard Schroeder take it?

Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-linked political analyst who helped run the ill-starred campaign of Yushchenko's Moscow-backed rival, also attended the opening.

You don't say.

"Our nation is being dragged into NATO behind the people's back," Vitrenko said. ...

...about a process that is covered in Russian and Ukrainian papers virtually every day.

"We must mobilize all healthy forces of society to oppose this evil scenario." ... [snip]

You know, evil scenario. Like routinely meddling in the internal political affairs of a neighboring country. Or threatening to violate an explicit agreement and quadruple the price of gas sold to Ukraine almost overnight. During the winter.

During recent weeks, Moscow and Kiev have been locked in an acrimonious dispute over Russian natural gas deliveries to Ukraine. Gazprom more than quadrupled the price for Ukraine starting next year, and Ukraine has refused to pay.

And here to accept the award for silliest conspiracy theory...

Markov claimed Thursday that Gazprom had been caught in a "trap" set by the Ukrainian authorities, who will use the conflict to fan anti-Russian sentiments. [Emphases mine]

Something's got to make people distrust those Russians. Maybe freezing to death will do it.

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White Hunter, Black Heart

December 14, 2005 08:09 AM

Leave it to the Germans to set a new standard for cynicism. Gerhard Schroeder, failed former chancellor, America-baiting demagogue, terrorist appeasor and all-round gasbag has now surrendered his lone remaining virtue: At least he wasn't one of Vladimir Putin's stooges. In case you haven't been following affairs here in the former Soviet Bloc, the Russian leader has been threatening to force Ukraine to pay market rates for oil and gas from its Eastern neighbor. Fair enough. But this would, according to most reports, triple the price of petrol here overnight. When the price spikes, ordinary Ukrainians will be the ones to suffer, and scores of people in this desperately poor country will die. Putin, of course, knows this. Which is why he's been using Russia's supplier role to put the screws into Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko, who insists on building relations with the West. (No similar pressure has been put on Lukashenko's regime in Belarus, which buys its gas at the same rate as Ukraine.) The one card Yushchenko has had to play in all this is the fact that Ukraine could block Russia's shipments of oil westward -- 80 percent of Russia's gas exports pass through Ukraine via pipelines. This would hurt both countries but, well, there you have it.

Enter plucky Gerhard. Few understood the logic when the former chancellor spent so much political capital on backing an oil pipeline through the Baltic Sea from Russia. Oh, yes, there were claims that the pipeline would bolster supply guarantees for Germany. But the plan's only logical basis was to put the squeeze on Eastern European countries -- Ukraine in particular -- that were gravitating away from Russia and toward the West. And Germany, one of the West's anchor economies, could not want that, right? Well, no one calculated that Schroeder's interests were somewhat different than Germany's. They know now: Last week, Schroeder signed on to work for Gazprom, the Russian gas giant that is essentially controlled by the Russian government. The company believes it's high time Ukraine paid the market rate for its gas shipments. Last week, Putin publicly concurred. Does anyone need to ask Schroeder for his opinion?

P.S. As this Washington Post editorial page points out, the more you know about the details of Schroeder's arrangement, the more sordid this tale becomes....

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More of those 'Lying Liars'

December 3, 2005 03:48 AM

I've been stateside since Thanksgiving, so I'm a bit out of the swim of current events in Ukraine. But this rather brief report from London's Independent caught my eye.

KIEV, Ukraine -- A Ukrainian presidential bodyguard who exposed the country's biggest political scandal, involving murder, corruption, and illegal arms sales to Saddam Hussein has returned home, vowing to put his former boss, Leonid Kuchma, behind bars.
Major Mykola Melnychenko fled Kiev in 2000 after revealing excerpts from secret recordings he made of Mr Kuchma which implicated the president in the murder of a journalist who had exposed the corruption of Mr Kuchma's 10-year rule.

Major Melnychenko has been provided with a bodyguard by the Ukrainian intelligence services since his arrival on Wednesday from the US where he was given political asylum in 2003. He was with a former Ukrainian MP, Oleksandr Yalyaskevych, also granted US asylum after claiming Mr Kuchma's henchmen had tried to kill him....[snip]

Major Melnychenko says he saw Mr Kuchma taking bribes, and recorded him allegedly authorising sales of sophisticated defence systems to Iraq in contravention of UN sanctions.

Emphasis added. Ah, yes, another timely reminder that Saddam was not the properly chastened "dictator-in-a-box" of anti-war fantasy. In this particular case, his purchase included three so-called Kolchuga radar systems, an anti-stealth technology that can detect radar signals and electromagnetic pulses from warplanes at distances of hundreds of miles, while emitting no signal of its own (meaning pilots do not know they are being tracked). Presumably the goal here was to shoot down American and British warplanes that were, at the time, enforcing 'no-fly' zones north and south of Baghdad. The zones, you might recall, were intended to prevent any further massacre of Iraq's Kurdish and Shi'ite populations. But the specific purpose for which the radars were sought was moot, of course: International sanctions had forbidden Saddam from purchasing and acquiring any weaponry since 1990.

I guess in this instance, as in so many others, "containment" meant restraining one's impulse to collapse in gales of laughter at the impotence of the international sanctions imposed on Saddam.

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