Russia Archives

Day Zero for NATO

January 15, 2007 04:18 AM

Various pro-Russia forces here in Ukraine are hoping to compel a referendum on NATO membership this year, on the assumption that voters will overwhelmingly reject entry. They've already got the signatures they need to put the issue on the ballot. Luckily for president Viktor Yushchenko and others who support entry, the decision on scheduling the vote may rest in the hands of a government body that no longer exists.

Another expert quoted by Segodnya ["Today"], former parliament deputy speaker Viktor Musiyaka, pointed to a discrepancy between the constitution and the 1991 law on referenda, which obliges parliament’s presidium -- a body scrapped more than a decade ago -- rather than the president to set the date for a referendum.

The way the politics are moving here, that presidium could be back sooner than anyone expects.

Link · Diplomacy | Europe | NATO | Russia

Russia Archives

Ukraine Backfill

December 18, 2006 04:36 AM

Yes, posting has been light here recently. So let's briefly catch up with just a few of the major developments.

Jack Palance died at 87. He was from Ukraine - "Believe it or Not."**

Viktor Yanukovich visited Washington for meetings with senior U.S. officials. He told American audiences "There can never be too much democracy, just as there can never be too much freedom." Then he fell over on his side and began pounding the floor as he convulsed with laughter.

Back home, Ukrainians are still not sure who is in charge of the government. Yanukovich-appointed government ministers barred Ukraine's pro-Western foreign minister, Borys Tarasyuk, from a cabinet meeting, explaining (according to Tarasyuk) that his name wasn't "on the list."

The Rada passed a bill to recognize the 1932-33 famine as a deliberate act of genocide, undertaken by Stalin's regime, in which millions of Ukrainians perished. In a nationally televised broadcast, Viktor Yushchenko said, "Those who deny the man-made famine hate Ukraine deeply and convincingly, hate us, our spirit and our future." This group presumably includes virtually the entire majority coalition in the Rada, since its deputies sat out the vote so as not to offend the Putin government in Russia.

David Duke was awarded a doctorate in History by a prominent university in Kyiv that has traditionally fixated on the "Jewish question." (The State Department says the school gets some of its funding from Middle Eastern governments. Go figure.) It was his second visit.

**TV show he hosted with his wife in the 1980s.

Link · Jews | Russia | Ukraine

Russia Archives

The Devil's Advocate

November 27, 2006 02:44 AM

Always available to vouchsafe a tyrant, Pat Buchanan acquits Vladimir Putin in the murder of Sasha Litvinenko in London last week.

What benefit could Putin conceivably realize from the London killing of an enemy of his regime, who had just become a British citizen? Why would the Russian president, at the peak of his popularity, with his regime awash in oil revenue and himself playing a strong hand in world politics, risk a breach with every Western nation by ordering the public murder of a man who was more of a nuisance than a threat to his regime?

How quaint. Putin jails his critics, silences the free press, bullies his Western-leaning neighbors, supplies Iran with missiles, prevents sanctions against North Korea and blocks efforts to stop the genocide in Darfur - and Pat wonders why he would now risk a "breach" with the West! And just when things were going so smoothly....

Well, I would never presume to challenge Pat's expertise on the authoritarian mindset, but it seems to me that he's over-estimated Putin's desire to ingratiate himself with Europe. He's also overlooked the obvious Kremlin windfall from the murder: Even if Putin's goons weren't responsible, Putin's critics will get the message. How better to intimidate opponents than to demonstrate that there is no safe haven safe for them? The inscrutability of the act only enhances the effect.

Yet Pat considers it more plausible that the Kremlin's enemies - Litvinenko's friends - cooked up this entire scheme in an effort to "embarrass" Putin, the former KGB man, who comes across here as a Chaplinesque figure, charmingly oblivious as his opponents are murdered around him. Uh huh.

It is fitting here to mention a book review posted recently on the CIA's Web site. The volume explores the KGB files (translated memos, actually - the files were destroyed) on Andrei Sakharov, the late dissident. It sheds light on the absurdity and paranoia that once governed the KGB [Hat tip: aldaily.com].

At the time of Sakharov’s first public expression of dissent—the publication in the West in 1968 of his essay “Reflections on Progress, Coexistence, and Intellectual Freedom”—the KGB did not know what to make of him. Sakharov was, after all, one of the Soviet Union’s leading physicists, and he had been showered with honors. The KGB, not realizing that Sakharov’s essay was the result of a gradual disillusionment with Soviet society rather than an impulsive act, at first hoped to bring him back to orthodoxy. “To prevent him from committing politically harmful acts, we believe it would make sense of one of the secretaries of the Central Committee to receive Sakharov and conduct an appropriate conversation with him,” recommended KGB Chairman Yuriy Andropov in June 1968. (90)

The reluctance to condemn Sakharov, however, brought problems of its own, as the KGB noted that “government circles in the USA” might misread the Kremlin’s silence as an endorsement of his views and wrongly assume that Soviet foreign policy was shifting. (94) In 1970, with Sakharov becoming more radical and building contacts with other dissidents, Andropov recommended the installation of listening devices in his apartment to “discover the contacts inciting him to commit hostile acts” and prevent “individuals hostile to the Soviet state” from exploiting his name. The monitoring, which eventually included physical surveillance, break-ins and thefts, and reporting by informers, continued until Sakharov’s death in 1999. (99)[3]

The KGB, continually unable to comprehend Sakharov’s dissent, could only view his actions through the prism of its Bolshevik and Chekist past. As a result, KGB officials not only saw him as the tool of foreign conspiracies but often managed to detect multiple plots working together. In December 1975, Andropov reported that “bourgeois propaganda is actively exploiting [Sakharov’s statements] for purposes of subversive activities against the Soviet Union and other socialist countries.” (207) Soviet anti-Semitism reinforced these themes, as when Andropov declared in 1973 that Sakharov and Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn were “offering their services to reactionary imperialist and especially Zionist circles.” (166) Shortly after President Jimmy Carter sent a letter of support to Sakharov, Andropov claimed that “ideological centers and Zionist organizations have involved the new Carter administration” in Sakharov’s subversion. (223) The KGB also often ascribed Sakharov’s dissent to the malign influence of Elena Bonner. Her views, wrote Andropov in 1980, “not only are based on her hostile attitude toward the Soviet system but also conform to the recommendation of intelligence services in the USA.”

This is the universe Putin emerged from.

Link · Diplomacy | Europe | Putin | Putin | Russia

Russia Archives

Another One Bites the Dust

November 24, 2006 01:58 PM

KGB defector Sasha Litvinenko is dead, just days after being poisoned in a London restaurant.

“The bastards got me,” he whispered. “But they won’t get everybody.”

Mr Litvinenko, 43, uttered his last defiant words to Andrei Nekrasov, a friend and film-maker, who had visited him in University College Hospital in London every day this week. Last night Mr Nekrasov described the extraordinary scenes in hospital, where one ward looks like a scene from The Godfather.

“Sasha was a good-looking, physically strong and courageous man,” Mr Nekrasov told The Times. “But the figure who greeted me looked like a survivor from the Nazi concentration camps.”

Moments after he saw his friend pass away, Mr Nekrasov said: “I have been through a few things in Russia and Chechnya, but this is one of the most horrible crimes I have witnessed in my my life.”

“It was sadistic, slow murder. It was perpetrated by somebody incredibly cruel, incredibly heartless. It had no meaning whatsover.” ...

Doctors remained baffled about what Mr Litvinenko ingested on November 1, at one of two meetings with Russian contacts. Geoff Bellingan, director of critical care at University College Hospital, said that doctors were now convinced that the cause was not a heavy metal such as thallium, as originally suspected. Nor had he swallowed any mystery objects. “Radiation poisoning is also unlikely,” he said.

Andrea Sella, a chemistry expert at University College, said that it had become increasingly difficult to identify the poison. “They have to find some unspecified poison. They don’t know whether it is a single substance or a mixture.”

Mr Nekrasov revealed that Mr Litvinenko’s British citizenship had come through on the day of a service at Westminster Abbey for Anna Politkovskaya, a friend and critic of the Kremlin murdered in Moscow.

“We discussed the likelihood of another killing. Sasha warned me not to go back to Russia because it was too dangerous,” Mr Nekrasov said. “Very sadly he turned out to be the next victim, attacked in the perceived safety of Central London.” ...

And let's not leave out the non-denial denial from the Kremlin:

An aide to Mr Putin said: “Of course it’s a human tragedy. A person was poisoned. But the accusations against the Kremiln are so incredible, so silly, that the President cannot comment.”

Yes, too silly even to disavow. I hope this guy has protection.

Link · Russia

Russia Archives

Anna Politkovskaya

October 10, 2006 06:59 AM

There has been much written in the last two days about the despicable murder of Anna Politkovskaya - an act as depraved as it was, alas, predictable in Vladimir Putin's Russia. For its implications, one could do worse than this analysis by the always thoughtful Ron Rosenbaum. You may quarrel with his conclusions - even he does - but you cannot help but share his exasperation. The obituary from Novaya Gazeta, her newspaper, bears reprinting in full:

ANYA

On Saturday, October 7th, Anna Politkovskaya, correspondent of Novaya Gazeta was killed in the stairwell of her home

Novaya Gazeta, Moscow, Russia, Monday, October 9, 2006

She was beautiful, and through the years became only more beautiful. Do you do know why? At first we merely receive our countenance from God, and then the rest we make of it ourselves in the way that we live.

Still, they say that in maturity the soul begins to appear on face. Her soul was beautiful.

She was feminine. She knew how to laugh and joke and cry from injustice. Any injustice, no matter with respect to whom, she took as her personal enemy, and she fought it with all her strength.

She was amazingly courageous, much more courageous than those many macho types in their armored jeeps, surrounded by bodyguards.

They threatened her, they tried to intimidate her, and arranged shadows and searches. She was arrested in Chechnya by "our own" airborne forces, and they threatened to shoot her.

They poisoned her when she flew to Beslan. She clawed her way back to life, and, though afterwards she was never really as healthy as before, her conscience was all the stronger.

Many people, even well-wishers of Novaya Gazeta, now and then said: "Well, your Politkovskaya - she's too much already..." Not too much! She always wrote the truth.

It is another matter that this truth was frequently too terrible, that many people's consciences refused to accept it. And so, as a protective reaction, they said she was "too much already." Sometimes even our editorial staff.

For the average person, probably, the most difficult thing is to turn away from a terrible fact. But, if we were to look evil directly in the eye, it cannot remain; it will pass.

Anya looked evil directly in the eye, and, perhaps, she remained the conqueror in the worst situations. Perhaps she remained alive where her lowered eyes would have meant her death.

For us she is still alive. We will be never accept the death of our Anya. Whoever undertook this brutal murder - in the center of Moscow, in broad daylight, we ourselves will search for the killers. We have a good idea where they can be located...

In Europe, and in America, right now the question is being discussed: what is the state of the independent media in Russia? Novaya Gazeta in recent years has had three of its leading journalists murdered.

Igor Domnikov. His killers - because of the efforts of honest detectives and this newspaper - were brought to court.

Yuri Shchekochihin. Even the authorities in his homeland refused to look at the results of his autopsy... but we are continuing our investigation, and his killers will be punished.

Now they have taken our Anya Politkovskaya... They killed not just a
journalist, not just a human rights advocate, or a citizen, they killed a beautiful woman and mother.

While there is still a Novaya Gazeta, her killers will not sleep quietly.

[Hat Tip: Morgan Williams & Action Ukraine Report]

Link · Journalism | Russia | Ukraine

Russia Archives

Puntin' Putin

May 24, 2006 09:39 AM

The GUAM summit closes in Kiev with more interesting developments:

KIEV, May 23 - Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova at a summit on Tuesday decided to strengthen their alliance that is expected to play a key role in establishing alternative energy supplies to the European Union.

The alliance, previously known as GUAM, obtained the status of a full-fledged international bloc to be headquartered in Kiev and will be called the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development GUAM.

The bloc will focus on “forming a democratic space, security, humanitarian and social development, European and Euro-Atlantic integration,” President Viktor Yushchenko said after the summit.

The creation of the bloc is a bold step in promoting energy supply routes linking the Caspian Sea basin and consumers in the E.U. allowing to reduce heavy dependence on Russian energy.

One of the main projects to be promoted is launching supplies of Caspian Sea crude oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan via Georgian and Ukrainian pipelines to markets in Europe.

Democratic rights? Shared security? Euro-Atlantic integration? Alternatives to Russian energy? World Statesman Vladimir Putin must grow in confidence by the day!

Link · Russia | Ukraine · TrackBack (7)

Russia Archives

Statesmanship for Dummies

May 12, 2006 03:14 PM

Anatole Lieven finds that Vladimir Putin in Dick Cheney are similar in so many ways. And isn't it obvious? One's busily turning Russia back into a dictatorship, where political opponents are jailed, the media are kept on a short leash and international groups are presumed agents of foreign powers if they press Russia on human rights and democracy -- and the other guy is Vice President of the United States. So the similarities are readily apparent. But wait:

But to judge by their records, and especially their speeches of the past week, there is also an important difference between them. Putin is a statesman, and Cheney is not.

Uh, how's that?

Cheney's tub-thumping speech in Vilnius, Lithuania, attacking Russia for lack of democracy and energy "blackmail," coupled with his attempts to create an energy alliance against Russia, invited a blistering response from the Russian president. With perfect fairness, and with the approval - in this case - of most of humanity, Putin could have torn Cheney's speech apart on a whole range of issues.

Among that segment of humanity that wouldn't tear apart the speech: Cheney's audience of leaders from the former Soviet republics, to whom the speech was directed. I guess they consider Putin's statesmanship to be overrated.

These include the hypocrisy of denouncing Russia over democracy and going straight on to lavish praise on the oil- rich dictators of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan; the general weirdness of Cheney talking about human rights at all; the insolence of an administration with the Bush-Cheney team's record in the Middle East daring to demand automatic Russian support against Iran in the name of "the international community," and so on.

Of course we all giggle when Cheney mentions human rights. It's so weird. But someone will have to clue me in on what "record in the Middle East" precludes the Bush administration from worrying about Iranian nukes and the help provided to the program by Russia.

And of course we're hypocrites. We have nukes and we don't want Iran to have them. Putin might just as well have pointed that out, too.

If Putin had issued such a response in his state of the union address on Wednesday, he would have had the approval of the overwhelming majority of Russians - while of course doing still further damage to U.S.-Russian relations.

It is hard to imagine a U.S. president turning down a domestic political opportunity like this, whatever the likely effect on his country's interests. But apart from a couple of mild and indirect comments, Putin said none of these things. Instead, he focused on the issue that is indeed the greatest threat to the Russian nation, namely demographic decline.

Oh please. Putin left the demagoguery to the Kremlin-controlled media. Dictatorship has those kinds of advantages.

Putin's calm response to Cheney may be rooted partly in a new confidence in Russia's strength, especially when it comes to influence within the former Soviet Union. One of the marks of Putin's statesmanship is that with some exceptions (mainly with regard to Ukraine, about which Russians tend to be irrational) he has displayed an accurate feel for Russia's real strengths and weaknesses.

Yeah, that Ukraine thing was a doozy. But of course we all remember Bush campaigning for a favored candidate in Mexico, poisoning his opponent with Dioxin and shutting off the country's access to a critical natural resource when he didn't get his way. Statesmen behave that way sometimes.

To give one example, Putin last year withdrew the remaining Russian military bases from Georgia proper, where they were provocative and vulnerable, while continuing the Russian military presence in the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where it enjoys overwhelming local support.

Gosh. If getting kicked out of Georgia gives Putin such confidence, imagine how great he'll feel when Georgia and Ukraine abandon the Commonwealth of Independent States and join NATO....

Link · Russia | Ukraine · TrackBack (12)

Russia Archives

The Wages of Fear

May 8, 2006 05:26 AM

UPDATE 5/11: Reference to Georgia clarified from original post.

The Vilnius Summit is turning into a potential watershed in East-West relations. Last week, VP Cheney chided Russia for its backsliding on democracy and human rights. Georgia is poised to leave the Russia-led Commonwealth of Independent States. And now Ukraine looks poised to follow, reports the AP:

The press service of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko organized a special briefing on the future of the CIS by the head of the foreign relations service of the president's secretariat Konstantin Timoshenko. Mr. Timoshenko reported that the Ukrainian leadership is not satisfied with the effectiveness of the organization's functioning and that the president is seriously considering Ukraine's withdrawal from it.

“Unless something changes, the question of Ukraine's withdrawal from the CIS will become a practical plan, if not tomorrow, then in the near future,” Timoshenko said.

The presidential adviser's appearance was the apotheosis of a series of anti-CIS moves by Ukrainian authorities. For a week, various officials have been harshly criticizing the CIS. Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Ogryzko set the tone when he stated during a visit to Moscow that Kiev is disappointed the CIS has turned from an organization of action to an organization of conversation.

He said that Ukraine has repeatedly made specific proposals within the CIS and none of them were developed by the organization.

Ogryzko cited the example of President Yushchenko's proposal to set up common border protection for the CIS countries, which was ignored. “Will there be any desire to make new proposals after that? The question arises as to why we need that shell? For business or as a club?”

The Ukrainian Security Council followed the Foreign Ministry. Its secretary Anatoly Kinakh hit at a sore spot when he said that the CIS has lost its economic meaning. “Hundreds of documents have been passed by the CIS, but they are not implemented. The procedure for creating a free trade zone between member states has not been completed,” he recalled.

Yushchenko did not touch on the topic of the CIS directly at the Vilnius summit. But it was clear from his speech at the forum that the CIS is not the future Kiev has in mind. Yushchenko called maximum closeness to NATO and the European Union the main goals of his presidency. “It will be a great honor for me to solve those problems,” he said.

No the honor's ours, Vik. Meanwhile, top Bush administration officials are working on oil agreements with countries like Azerbaijan and Equatorial Guinea -- presumably in an effort to lessen reliance on Russian oil. There's a chill in the air, no?

Link · American Politics | Middle East | Russia | Ukraine · TrackBack (6)

Russia Archives

from the annals of diplomacy

April 10, 2006 09:16 AM

The Russian government has assured Condoleeza Rice, in writing(!), that it did not tip-off Saddam Hussein to America's intentions on the eve of the Iraq war. As you will see below, Russia's denial struck Rice as firm and unequivocal. The emphases are mine.

According to the letter, “the Russian government does not believe that contact took place” between Saddam Hussein and the Russian ambassador to Baghdad at the time, Vladimir Titorenko, [Rice] said.

Lavrov “told me that he believes that any such contact would have been highly inappropriate for an ambassador of Russia,” she added.

“Of course, we will continue to look into the matter,” she told lawmakers, saying the U.S. administration was trying to verify the authenticity of documents which indicate Moscow tipped off the Iraqi dictator about U.S. plans for the March 20, 2003 invasion.

[Report orig. from AFP]

Link · Iraq | Middle East | Russia · TrackBack (51)

Russia Archives

Where do the Russian pervs turn?

April 10, 2006 08:56 AM

France sheltered Roman Polanski, but she's not so generous toward the home-grown molesters, evidently.

Link · Russia · TrackBack (4)

Russia Archives

echo of yesteryear

February 25, 2006 12:35 PM

On the 50-year anniversary of Khruschev's "secret speech," which began the de-Stalinization of Soviet Russia, Seamus Milne of London's Guardian newspaper revives the voice of the useful idiot.

But in any case, none of this explains why anyone might be nostalgic in former communist states, now enjoying the delights of capitalist restoration. The dominant account gives no sense of how communist regimes renewed themselves after 1956 or why western leaders feared they might overtake the capitalist world well into the 1960s.

True, you don't hear much these days about how we once hilariously believed the Soviet Union would pose an economic threat to the West. Ten minutes here in Kiev would have dispelled that nonsense. Some of us no longer fear the Cuban economic miracle, either.

For all its brutalities and failures, communism in the Soviet Union, eastern Europe and elsewhere delivered rapid industrialisation, mass education, job security and huge advances in social and gender equality. It encompassed genuine idealism and commitment, captured even by critical films and books of the post-Stalin era such as Wajda's Man of Marble and Rybakov's Children of the Arbat. Its existence helped to drive up welfare standards in the west, boosted the anticolonial movement and provided a powerful counterweight to western global domination....[snip]

So you're telling me I can learn to read, hold a job, experience "social and gender equality" and strike a blow against western hegemony -- and all I need to do is submit to the whims of the state, live in permanent terror of denunciation and maybe lose half my family in one misguided social experiment or another? Where do I sign up?

Part of the current enthusiasm in official western circles for dancing on the grave of communism is no doubt about relations with today's Russia and China. But it also reflects a determination to prove there is no alternative to the new global capitalist order - and that any attempt to find one is bound to lead to suffering and bloodshed....[snip]

Of course. That must be what They really want. As Stalin himself might say, that's why they must be killed.

Link · Europe | History | Journalism | Russia | Ukraine · TrackBack (1)

Russia Archives

From Russia, With Chutzpah

February 13, 2006 04:40 AM

NIKITA KHRUSCHEV'S great-granddaughter, Nina, introduces a less familiar legacy of her famous forebear: freedomishness.

While it hadn't gone far enough in demystifying the totalitarian system, [Khruschev's "secret"] speech had launched the period known as the thaw, when millions of Soviet citizens were released from the gulag, and opened the door to a more frank exchange of ideas and to a limited flow of foreign visitors and goods. The freedoms that the former communist countries enjoy today have flowed from the cracks in the system that Khrushchev introduced with his speech of Feb. 25, 1956....

Wow, and to think it only took 50 years for all this flowing from cracks to become a trickling stream of stunted liberty! Of course, Hungary got to express its gratitude for this thaw to the column of Red Army tanks that rolled in later that year. (Oh, c'mon, Mister Stingy -- at least Khruschev started the ball rolling. People ought to be grateful for that - hlm. I agree! Now excuse me while I turn to my assailant here and thank him for no longer clanging my head with a pan.)

Link · History | News Media | Russia | Ukraine · Comments (0) · TrackBack (23)

Russia Archives

Putin Putters Out

January 21, 2006 09:28 AM

Mark Almond of Oxford University gets it exactly right in London's Guardian today.

The murky Swiss-based arrangements for divvying up the compromise price agreed between Gazprom, Russia's state-controlled gas company, and its Ukrainian partners cannot disguise the reality that Russia lost out in the quarrel. The EU rallied against its major energy partner, and behind Washington.

That's the bottom line. Many smart folks, including the indispensible Dan McMinn, have pored over the Swiss-brokered agreement and found areas that suggest the pact may not be terrific in the long run. Fine. But that's a game for another day. The game that was being played at the stroke of the New Year was whether Putin could isolate Ukraine and send a message to other uppity CIS nations. He lost that fight.

Where Putin might have found a bit more success was in suggesting to Ukrainians, before the March parliamentary elections, that there was a price to pay for Yushchenko's dalliances with the West (more below). Still, in the long run Russia has been exposed as a paper tiger -- unable to back up its threats with its most valuable asset. Russia needs to export its gas every bit as much as the West needs to receive it.

So, you ask, if this was such a blow to Russia, why are we having a huge constitutional crisis in Ukraine right now, premised on the notion that the Yekhanurov government failed to get a worthy agreement? Because it's election season, and cynics like Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovich will quite naturally try to get as much mileage as they can from the opening Putin provided them. And they may well succeed (though I don't think that the Rada's move to "fire" the government will survive a constitutional test). But my hunch is that Yushchenko and his party have already lost the vote of every Ukrainian who believes Ukraine future lies to the East, with Russia.

Link · Russia | Ukraine · Comments (0) · TrackBack (3)

Russia Archives

"Free" Failing

January 5, 2006 03:38 AM

For pure foolishness, I thought there was no way Kennedy School Russaphile Graham Allison could top his recent contribution to the Boston Globe, which I commented upon here. Allison asked "Who could have imagined" that Russia would today be doing any number of things that people might easily imagine, while never asking the most salient question of the moment: Who could have imagined that Russia would be slipping back into an aggressive authoritarianism that suppresses dissent and menaces its neighbors? Well, Allison concludes with a sigh, "there are always enough negatives to support the pessimists." Permit me to revisit that Globe piece for a minute, because it will help you understand that we were not dealing with standard-issue academic malarkey here. This was high test stuff:

In my view, Russia is still the land of the Matrushkas and Potemkin's village -- much more subtle and complex than we realize. One peels off one shell only to find another -- each layer embodying elements of truth, competing with contradictory realities both within and beyond.

You will not read a more fatuous bit of analysis this year.

So what's happened since? Well, the land of the Matrushkas, led by Patrushka Putin, tried to blackmail Ukraine into paying 400% higher rates for its gas by shutting off the spigot mid-winter. That's all.

Now, many a scholar, even at the Kennedy School, would be chastened by this kind of development. After all, most scholars wait years for their repudiation, and Allison received his almost overnight! But Allison simply shifted tack. Writing in the LAT this morning, Allison shows that he is in fact concerned about creeping authoritarianism in... Italy.

You know Italy. Overbearing mother figures. Constant threat to Albania. Participant in "cold war" over lift ticket revenues with Switzerland and Austria. World capital of scooter crashes.

Allison gets worked up over suggestions -- in this case by Sens. McCain and Lieberman -- that Russia, because of its "assault on democracy and freedom," does not belong in the Group of Eight, a consortium of the world's largest economies which now includes, well, Russia, which is not one of the world's largest economies. Meanwhile, nary a word is said about the gulags of Italy, where prisoners are stuffed with manicotti, prohibited from using explanatory hand gestures and forced to watch De Sica films without the sound on.

Okay, well not exactly. The actual problem with Italy is its president, Silvio Berlusconi. You see, he's the nation's "wealthiest individual" and is putatively quite corrupt -- even by Italian standards, I suppose.

Moreover, Berlusconi effectively controls 90% of national television broadcasting. He owns three networks and has indirect control over public broadcasting through his ability to influence the choice of the management at these stations. In its 2003 freedom of the press survey, Freedom House downgraded Italy's ranking from "free" to "partly free," where it remains today. [Emphasis mine]

Wait a second. Now, I don't know much about Italian politics, but I know how to read a basic chart! Read for yourself. Unless I'm mistaken, the 2006 survey awards Italy the top score (1 in scale of 1-7) in both its categories -- political rights and civil liberties -- and the flat designation "Free." I'll take Allison at his word on what the 2003 report says. But wouldn't that mean that press freedom has actually improved under Berlusconi?

Oh, and Russia? Well, FH gives them a low-end 6 for political rights and a 5 for civil liberties. "Not Free." But, hey, it's better than Cuba and Libya!

Link · News Media | Russia · Comments (0) · TrackBack (27)

Russia Archives

The Good, the Bad, and the Oil

January 3, 2006 12:29 PM

So, let's see. This morning Gazprom was squealing like a stuck pig over its contention that Ukraine had diverted gas shipments routed to other countries, leading to significant shortfalls in deliveries. Soon after, Russia agreed to resume discussions with Ukraine in the dispute. By evening, Gazprom was swearing up and down that they have "completed work" that will enable everyone to receive the full gas allotment tomorrow -- but not Ukraine, which is still under embargo. Meanwhile, gas prices climbed above $63 a barrel.

So what kind of "work" was "completed"? Well, unless Russia built a brand new pipeline through the Baltic Sea in the last day or two, the developments indicate that we are waiting for Putin to come up with a face-saving way to fold his hand. I'll let this fellow Bill O'Grady explain:

``We're up in part because of the tragi-comic events occurring between Russia and Ukraine,'' said Bill O'Grady, an analyst with A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis. ``If there are persistent natural gas shortages, the way you address the situation is burning alternate fuels. The bigger problem is that perhaps Russia is not a dependable energy supplier.'' [Emphasis mine]

Bingo.

The question before Russia is quite simple: Can it meet its obligations or not? Before this showdown with Ukraine, the answer was an unqualified yes. The spat with Ukraine, however, has revealed two ominous portents in Russia's energy situation, both of them stemming from Putin's nationalization efforts. First, the stalemate indicates that supply contracts will only mean something until Putin says they don't. So, then, what value are the supply contracts that everyone is holding? At the same time, the stalemate has shown the cynicism with which Putin plans to wield his government's new industrial controls. Western governments will gladly buy gas from Russia, but only so long as the transaction terms are limited to cash-and-carry. If the price of delivery includes bending to Russia's will, many governments will seek alternatives -- either in other, less risky suppliers, or in technologies such as nuclear power. Politicians like to stabilize energy supplies, after all, because disruptions lead to political instability.

UPDATE: As predicted. Gazprom was going to have to settle for something far short of what it was demanding, and Putin needed to save face. What we've got, basically, is a modified version of what Yushchenko has been proposing all along: a gradual phase-in of market pricing. The question now is whether Putin's maneuvers have already sown doubt in European capitals about Russia's reliability as a supplier.

Link · Russia | Ukraine | Ukraine · Comments (0) · TrackBack (33)

Russia Archives

Someone wake the CIA

December 30, 2005 08:27 AM

From a piece on Russian industrial policy, in Kommersant.

Yuganskneftegaz, the main Yukos production unit, was auctioned off in late December 2004. At that time, experts believed this to be a mere coincidence. In their opinion, that auction was an inevitable consequence of the Kremlin's war against disgraced oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. They were wrong because it heralded the beginning of the most ambitious industrial nationalization program since the October 1917 Bolshevik revolution. Two state-controlled holding companies were set up on the basis of Rosneft and Gazprom.

[Translation: Novosti]

Link · Russia · Comments (0) · TrackBack (40)

Russia Archives

Friends Like These...

December 30, 2005 07:48 AM

From Moskovsky Komsomolets, another reminder why former Soviet bloc countries don't trust security guarantees from Old Europe. Here's Iosif Diskin of the National Strategy Council in Russia:

"Europe's rhetoric has changed drastically over the last two weeks. Earlier, the issue was seen as purely political, it was about the evil Russia oppressing the most democratic Ukraine; but now they are simply worried about their own gas supplies.

"In this war of nerves Europe is a poor ally for Ukraine. It has begun to dawn on Kiev that at 10 a.m. on January 1 Russia will start sending only as much gas as has been bought by, say, Slovakia, Austria, Germany, etc. And if one of the addressees does not receive all or part of its order, we can easily prove that it has been stolen." [Emphasis mine]

[Translation: Novosti]

Link · Russia | Ukraine · Comments (0) · TrackBack (25)

Russia Archives

The Potemkin Analysis of Russia

December 27, 2005 06:34 AM

Graham Allison, a former assistant secretary of defense who now teaches at the Kennedy School at Harvard, has a piece on Russia in today's Boston Globe that defies parody (and believe me, I tried). You'll just have to read it for yourself. But bear in mind as you do that if the virtue of today's Russia is its "stability," as the author suggests, then this "backsliding on democracy" that he so casually refers to is a pretty serious threat. In Vladimir Putin's Russia there is virtually no press freedom, domestic political opponents are jailed and intimidated, its empire-minded government bullies and menaces independent neighboring states, and the military continues a slow-motion demolition of Chechnya. Sounds a bit like the old, unstable Russia, no?

Yet like an International Relations major exchanging bong-hits in his dormroom over the din of a Grateful Dead bootleg, Allison's analysis ultimately boils down to, Hey, it's complicated, man.

Russia remains a kaleidoscope of contradiction. It is still, in Winston Churchill's oft-quoted line, ''a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma." ...[snip]

Most Americans see Russia's glass as half empty rather than half full...there are always enough negatives to support the pessimists.

In my view, Russia is still the land of the Matrushkas and Potemkin's village -- much more subtle and complex than we realize. One peels off one shell only to find another -- each layer embodying elements of truth, competing with contradictory realities both within and beyond. [Emphases mine]

Now pass me the bong....

UPDATE: For more on Russia's "stability," it is worth checking out this editorial in today's Financial Times.

Link · Russia · Comments (0) · TrackBack (23)

Russia Archives

Putin's Useful Idiot

December 26, 2005 05:18 AM

Imagine this: A sitting Member of Congress who disapproves President Bush's foreign policy opens an office in Calgary devoted to mustering opposition -- with, of course, the tacit approval of the host government. Now meet Natalya Vitrenko, the radical socialist who leads the New Opposition bloc in the Rada:

MOSCOW, Russia [AP] -- A Ukrainian lawmaker on Thursday harshly criticized her nation's plan to join NATO and opened an information center in Moscow aimed at opposing the move.... [snip]

"If Ukraine joins NATO, it will become an open enemy of Russia," said Vitrenko, who represents a fringe party. "Ukraine will host NATO bases presenting a direct military threat to Russia." ...

...she said, speaking from the capital of a country that remains a direct military threat and all-round antagonist to the country she ostensibly serves in parliament.

Yushchenko has made NATO membership a top goal.

Vitrenko, who ran in Ukraine's 1999 presidential election, spoke at the opening of the Anti-NATO Information Center, which is located on a freshly painted ground floor of a shabby apartment building at 10 Khokhlovsky Pereulok.

I'm wondering if this foreign NGO will survive Russia's new restrictions on outside agitators. Actually, I'm wondering why this group doesn't have Kremlin office space. Did Gerhard Schroeder take it?

Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-linked political analyst who helped run the ill-starred campaign of Yushchenko's Moscow-backed rival, also attended the opening.

"Our nation is being dragged into NATO behind the people's back," Vitrenko said. ...

...about a process that is covered in Russian and Ukrainian papers virtually every day.

"We must mobilize all healthy forces of society to oppose this evil scenario." ... [snip]

You know, evil scenario. Like routinely meddling in the internal political affairs of a neighboring country. Or threatening to violate an explicit agreement and quadruple the price of gas sold to Ukraine almost overnight. During the winter.

During recent weeks, Moscow and Kiev have been locked in an acrimonious dispute over Russian natural gas deliveries to Ukraine. Gazprom more than quadrupled the price for Ukraine starting next year, and Ukraine has refused to pay.

And here to accept the award for silliest conspiracy theory...

Markov claimed Thursday that Gazprom had been caught in a "trap" set by the Ukrainian authorities, who will use the conflict to fan anti-Russian sentiments. [Emphases mine]

Something's got to make people distrust those Russians. Maybe freezing to death will do it.

Link · Russia | Ukraine · Comments (0) · TrackBack (4)

Russia Archives

Journalists of the Kremlin, Unite!

December 19, 2005 08:42 AM

What is it like to sit in Vladimir Putin's lap, yipping like a poodle and playfully licking his face? Why, it must feel awfully similar to writing articles for Russia's Pravda, an online newspaper formed by dejected Communist "journalists" after the collapse of the Soviet empire. Scroll through! And be sure not to miss the article on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's crusade for "tranquility and sustainable peace" in spite of harrassment from "some countries" (and we know who they are...).

Link · Russia · Comments (0) · TrackBack (5)

Russia Archives

Cranky As She Goes...

August 27, 2005 05:51 AM

At the Commonwealth of Independent States conference in Tatarstan, the Russians threaten -- nicely, very nicely -- to starve the populations of their uppity neighbors.

For its part Russia has made clear it is radically rethinking its policy towards its former republics.

"We shall be patient enough to explain to our CIS partners that Russia does not intend to rebuild the Soviet empire," a Kremlin official, requesting not to be named, said before the meeting.

"But the state of affairs whereby Russia de facto subsidises the economy of certain countries by providing them with energy at a price which penalises [Russia], while the people of these countries go hungry, no longer suits us," he added.

"This situation lays the groundwork for 'orange revolutions' (the name given to that in Ukraine) after which nothing much changes for people but some people get direct or backdoor payments from the Americans." [My bold]

Link · Russia